NX-Files

Happy 2011 anyone whom stumbles upon this blog.

Quick predictions for 2011:

Who will win the Rugby World Cup?

I really hope NZ, but I'm worried about the Aussies.

Will National get a majority in the general election?

Yes. My reasoning is this.

1) Winston 1st won't make the threshold so whatever vote he gets will be divided up proportionally to the parties which make it into parliament.

2) In 2002 the Labour Party briefly polled over 50% & they started talking about governing alone. This scared the horses & Labour's vote dropped by 10% on polling day. The difference with the Nats is they've been polling over 50% for most of time since they made it into office. Coupled with John Key who is more moderate than Helen Clark, I reckon people are comfortable with the idea of a Nat majority govt.

Will Julia Gillard's government make it to 2012?

No. There will be a by-election or some controversy which will force a general election.

How will be the next NZ Labour leader?

David Cargill... I mean Cunliffe. Who will spook the Nats at some point.