NX-Files

 
TheStandard.org.nz are very encouraged by the Horizon Poll, which shows the Nats down by about 10% compared to other polls (40%).  The Horizon Poll differs from other polls by including undecided voters.
 
As a political layman it's audacious of me to think I can challenge TheStandard.org.nz's political analyse.  After all many of the authors have worked in parliament before so you'd think they'd be on a higher plane of political thought. 
But here goes - I think the TheStandard.org.nz's analyse is wrong for the following reasons:
 

1. Voter turn out is ~80% mark.  I don't have any evidence but I suspect the majority of the ~20% whom don't vote are undecided. 

2. The Greens almost always poll higher than their election result indicating a high proportion of non-voters are in fact Green.  The other explanation is that people tell pollsters they'll vote Green because it gives them a fuzzy, warm feeling while ticking the blue or red box at the ballet. 

3. The TVNZ and TV3 polls weren't too far off the mark at the last election so should be given prominence over the newbie Horizon Poll.

4. I know there is bad blood between Winston Peters & some of the Nats, but it's rather presumptuous to presume that Winston would pick an unpopular Mr Goff to form a government over the popular Mr Key.  In fact Peter's formbook shows he takes the path of less resistance.

5. The Horizon Poll maybe actually good for the Nats because it helps to prevent complacency in the centre-right camp.  Also, the prospect of a Goff-Peters govt may scare centre-left voters into the arms of the moderate Mr Key.