Happy 2011 anyone whom stumbles upon this blog.

Quick predictions for 2011:

 

Who will win the Rugby World Cup?

I really hope NZ, but I'm worried about the Aussies.

 

Will National get a majority in the general election?

Yes. My reasoning is this.

1) Winston 1st won't make the threshold so whatever vote he gets will be divided up proportionally to the parties which make it into parliament.

2) In 2002 the Labour Party briefly polled over 50% & they started talking about governing alone. This scared the horses & Labour's vote dropped by 10% on polling day. The difference with the Nats is they've been polling over 50% for most of time since they made it into office. Coupled with John Key who is more moderate than Helen Clark, I reckon people are comfortable with the idea of a Nat majority govt.

 

Will Julia Gillard's government make it to 2012?

No. There will be a by-election or some controversy which will force a general election.

 

How will be the next NZ Labour leader?

David Cargill... I mean Cunliffe. Who will spook the Nats at some point.

 

 

 

""Its overly strong reaction to Israel over this issue suggests the GoNZ sees this flap as an opportunity to bolster its credibility with the Arab community, and by doing so, perhaps, help NZ lamb and other products gain greater access to a larger and more lucrative market."

 

The best thing about the Wikileaks is that they remind us how cynical & duplicitous the Clark govt (1999 – 2008) was (for those of us that need reminding).
Wikileaks alleges that Clark was driven by securing trade deals with Arab countries when she took an unusually strong stance against Israel.  If this is true, then such cynical behaviour is in part forgivable given she at least had NZ trade at heart. 
However, I remember this incident was at a time when the opposition National Party was making real head way in the polls.  I suspect Clark was more motivated by keeping the Nats out of the media than any trade deals. 
Either way, things were not what they seemed with the 5th Labour govt.

 

 

"Senior MOD officials (strictly protect) tell us it was not until Finance Minister Michael Cullen pointed out in a subsequent cabinet meeting that New Zealand's absence from Iraq might cost NZ dairy conglomerate Fonterra the lucrative dairy supply contract it enjoyed under the United Nations Oil for Food program," the cable said.

It said the prime minister "found a face-saving compromise" by sending non-combat engineers to be embedded with British forces.

I'm rather surprised this article is nowhere to be found in the Herald or on Stuff.

Cullen is of course correct in his assessment.

So in spite of Labour's holier-than-thou rhetoric on Iraq, the only reason why they sent the NZ Army was to secure a contract. My god, if that isn't blood for money, I don't know what is.

 

I believe a National govt. would've also sent NZ Defence Forces (depending on the make-up of the coalition), but I suspect their primary reason would be to help topple Sadam Hussain. However you feel about taking-out Sadam, it's a better reason than a Fonterra contract!

 

And lets not beat around the bush, non-combat engineers = the New Zealand Army. These guys aren't civilians.

 

 

 

In the Youtube video below, Shane Jones lampoons the Maori Party & by virtue Maori in general to such an extend that it makes Don Brash’s Owera speech look timid.

Shane Jones can get away with this because he’s of Maori decent (though you couldn’t tell from looking at him), and he’s from the political left.

I actually agree with Shane – he’s articulate and delivers his points well.  A future Labour Party Leader perhaps. 

However, if you cut through Shane’s bluster, there is policy.  The ‘family package’ sounds like another complex Labour initiative that only helps people who fit a certain criteria.  And he talks about NZ’s major emitters paying the full cost of their pollution.  That’s all very well and good, but if there’s no way to make a cow more environmentally friendly, then what’s the point of taxing the farmer to death?  I think industry should be penalized if they’re not using the most efficient method of production.  For example if you’re making a pencil the most environmentally efficient way possible, slapping on a pollution tax isn’t going to change a thing other than make pencils more expensive.  Or worse, dive the business overseas where they’re made with even greater cost to the environment.

I reckon the way forward is to empower people to become environmentally aware when shopping.  Label products to indicate the environmental cost of making the product and let the consumers decide if they can spare the cost for something which is better for the environment. 

 

 

 
Are New Zealanders prudes?  Compared to the French we probably are, but compared to the Americans we probably are not.  What is healthy?  I tend to agree with Anna Paquin - what's the big deal.  The fact this story is news worthy in NZ speaks for itself. 
 

 

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Tuesday, October 27, 2009 8:52:34 PM - Link

 

 

Millionaire businessman Sam Kelt has been charged with disorderly behaviour after allegedly kicking a boy racer's car in Hastings on Monday.
Kelt, 46, told the Dominion Post the driver had been attempting to run him down and he was astonished to be prosecuted by police.

He said a group of seven vehicles had sped past him around 10pm. As he crossed the road, headed for McDonald's , another car appeared and veered towards him.
"I had to jump out of the way to avoid being hit. It did a U-turn then came back toward me and veered at me again. Instinctively, and in self defence, I kicked it. That should tell you how close it was to me. It was incredibly dangerous."

Kelt will appear in Hastings District Court in December.
In 2006 Kelt suffered a fractured skull and eyesocket after being punched and kicked by a boy racer in Mt Maunganui.
He had stepped in front of the attacker's car to protest late night street racing.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009 9:56:11 PM - Link