http://m.kiwiblog.co.nz/2011/11/will_it_be_2002_reversed.html
In my opinion the key difference is no Winston Peters.
When it became apparent National didn't have a hope of winning in 2002, many national voters changed horse to Winston because it seemed like he'd be a stronger voice in opposition to Helen Clark's Labour than Bill English.
There was the Peter Dunne worm-riding effect which turned a few voters from both National & Labour.
Helen Clark also faced a scandal with the whole 'corn-gate' thing where she called John Campbell a 'creep' (can't imagine John Key saying something like that).
And to top it off MMP was still pretty new so people were experimenting. It was a perfect storm of factors which lead to Nation's lowest election result ever.
Fast forward to 2011 - the election date has been known for most of the year thanks to John Key (2002 was a snap election). Winston Peters & Peter Dunne are irrelevant. There are no significant new players. The leaders debates are only between John Key & Phil Goff - minor parties don't get a look in. The public have wised up to the workings of MMP.
And the most significant factor of them all - John Key is not Helen Clark.
In my opinion the key difference is no Winston Peters.
When it became apparent National didn't have a hope of winning in 2002, many national voters changed horse to Winston because it seemed like he'd be a stronger voice in opposition to Helen Clark's Labour than Bill English.
There was the Peter Dunne worm-riding effect which turned a few voters from both National & Labour.
Helen Clark also faced a scandal with the whole 'corn-gate' thing where she called John Campbell a 'creep' (can't imagine John Key saying something like that).
And to top it off MMP was still pretty new so people were experimenting. It was a perfect storm of factors which lead to Nation's lowest election result ever.
Fast forward to 2011 - the election date has been known for most of the year thanks to John Key (2002 was a snap election). Winston Peters & Peter Dunne are irrelevant. There are no significant new players. The leaders debates are only between John Key & Phil Goff - minor parties don't get a look in. The public have wised up to the workings of MMP.
And the most significant factor of them all - John Key is not Helen Clark.
1 comments:
Very good analysis NX
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